Aluminium 2018 price outlook

Feb 28 (GMT +8 ) Source: SMM

SHANGHAI, Feb 28 (SMM) – Multiple investment banks and institutes have made their forecast on aluminium prices for 2018 and here is the roundup:

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to $2,000/mt due to China’s continuous winter production cut policy.

UBS expected the price to climb to $2,400/mt due to a tight supply globally including China.

Morgan Stanley expected the price of the lightweight metal to average at around $2,116/mt ($0.96/lb) in 2018-2019, up 7% supported by China’s supply-side reform policies.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch saw support in base metals in general and lifts its aluminium price outlook to $2,381/mt ($1.08/lb) for 2018.

Macquarie saw an average of $1,938/mt this year due to robust demand from China. This was up 7% from its previous forecast.

JPMorgan was not so bullish on aluminium and lowered its price forecast for the second quarter to $1,970/mt. The bank sees weakening demand in China due to the country’s emission control and air quality policies.

Citi expected China's aluminium capacity to be released gradually this year and forecast price to hit above $2,000/mt in the medium term.

State Power Investment Corporation Ltd. (SPIC) saw a rather balanced aluminium market in 2018 with a deficit of 200,000 mt as new supply comes online slowly. It expected prices to go up this year and trade in a range of 13,800-16,200 yuan/mt.

Rusal expected aluminium price to hit over $2,000/mt in the medium term as consumption in the auto, building, packaging, and electronics industries would continue to use more aluminium. It also expected the global deficit to widen further.

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